0
Brazilian cereal production for the 2026/27 harvest could reach 366.6 million metric tons. This positive forecast reflects a larger planted area, projected at 85.3 million hectares, which offsets the slight expected decline in national average yield, which is projected to fall from 4,335 kilograms per hectare in 2025/26 to 4,296 kg/ha in the 2026/27 crop year. The data are included in the 14th edition of “Outlook for Agriculture and Livestock,” published by the National Supply Company (Conab) in partnership with Banco do Brasil (BB). The document also highlights the contribution of Brazilian agriculture and livestock to the stability of the domestic supply and to the provision of food in adequate quantity, quality, and diversity.
The area planted with corn is trending upward, while production potential will depend on the weather conditions recorded during the crop’s growing season. According to Conab’s projection, the planted area is expected to increase for the second consecutive time in the first corn season, with 4.54 million hectares allocated for planting in 2026/27—a 10.7% increase compared to the 2025/26 season. With this increase, production could reach 32.1 million metric tons, the highest volume recorded in the last 13 years. The area allocated to the second corn harvest is also expected to grow by 3.7%, potentially reaching 18.48 million hectares, resulting in an estimated production of 113.2 million metric tons. As for the third corn harvest, the projected yield is approximately 2.6 million metric tons, resulting in a projected total corn production for the 2026/27 season of around 148 million metric tons—a 2.8% increase compared to the 2025/26 season.
Interest in this grain is on the rise across all regions and is keeping pace with the increase in domestic demand, driven by animal feed production—amid expectations of higher poultry and swine production both this year and in 2027—and, above all, by growing demand from the grain-based ethanol industry. In addition to the rise in domestic consumption, greater demand for Brazilian grain is also expected from the international market, with exports potentially reaching 46 million metric tons in the 2026/27 crop year.
In the case of soybeans, the outlook for the 2026/27 harvest is for moderate production growth, combined with a more balanced supply-and-demand situation. The planted area is estimated at 49.3 million hectares, representing a slight increase of 1.4% compared to the previous harvest—the lowest percentage growth in the last 20 years. The national average yield for oilseed crops is expected to decline slightly, due to the high comparison base of the 2025/26 harvest, as well as the climate risks associated with the upcoming growing season. Under this scenario, the projection is for a harvest of 181.64 million metric tons.
September 15, 2026/ Conab/ Brazil.
https://www.gov.br/conab/pt-br
