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The Canadian swine herd is forecast to see slight growth in 2027 with a larger breeding herd and high sow productivity. The sow herd is forecast to grow 1% in 2027 following relative stability to begin 2026. The 2026 pig crop is estimated to see a 3% growth, with 2027 stable as sow productivity peaks. Slaughter is estimated to grow 2% in 2026 and will remain steady in 2027 at 22.35 million head.
Canadian producers will be watching for impacts to live exports from the full implementation of “Product of USA” as well as U.S. discussions on implementing mandatory country of origin labeling (mCOOL). Live exports are forecast to remain steady in 2027 (7.43 million head) while estimated to see a 6% growth in 2026. Reductions in slaughter capacity in Eastern Canada have not curbed production in Ontario and Ontario producers have seemingly developed relationships with U.S. processors to support market hog exports over a longer term.
Pork production is forecast to remain relatively steady in 2027 (2.2 million metric tons), with 2026 production estimated to see a 2% increase. Domestic consumption, estimated to reach 26.1 klg/person carcass weight, will see small gains as consumers look for price savings and pork is priced competitively against beef.
Pork exports are forecast to decline 1% in 2027 with anticipation of a weakening in global demand. Export gains will be likely in the Indo-Pacific and Colombia, and a weaker Canadian dollar could see sustained export support to Mexico and the United States. Imports are forecast to decline 5% amidst more robust domestic production but modest growth in consumption.
September 18, 2026/ USDA/ United States.
https://www.fas.usda.gov
