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The findings of African swine fever in Spain in November 2025 resulted in export restrictions and an oversupply of pork on the EU market. This new reality is projected to press pork production and exports during the second half of 2026 and in 2027.
Because the demand for piglets by the Spanish sector plummeted, piglet prices fell significantly in 2026. As a result of the suppressed piglet prices, the EU breeding sector is projected to start with a lower sow stock in 2027 and produce less weaned piglets in 2027. In absolute terms, the largest cuts in pig crop are forecast in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Hungary. The largest cuts in slaughter are forecast in Spain and Germany. With the lower supply of animals, EU slaughter is forecast to fall by 0.52% to 229.3 million head, and swine inventories by 0.62% to 129 million.
In 2027, EU pork production is forecast to decline for the first time since 2023. Major reductions are expected in Spain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Hungary. A significant production increase is not anticipated in any of the other EU Member States. Although EU pork production is forecast to fall, EU consumption is expected to remain strong, based on the favorable price of pork compared to beef and chicken breasts. This steady domestic demand for pork supports the EU meat sector's strategic shift toward prioritizing the EU internal market. Exporters now primarily utilize international export channels only for specific cuts, which receive higher prices in foreign markets compared to the EU. This strategic shift was originally triggered by China’s sudden reduction in pork imports in 2022, which exposed the EU sector's dependency on a single market. China's pork imports have declined for several consecutive years and could reach their lowest level since 2016 in 2026. In 2027, Chinese pork imports are forecast to remain stable as lower domestic production will offset a weakening demand.
Even if Chinese import demand would rebound, the EU pork sector is unlikely to fully benefit, because the EU's increasing focus on the EU domestic market. In addition, the EU sector experiences strong competition from Brazil and the United States on the Chinese market, amplified by Chinese tariffs on Spanish, Dutch and German pork. On September 5, 2025, the Chinese ministry placed anti-dumping duties of 15.6 up to 62.4% as from September 10. At the same time EU exporters have not been able to significantly expand pork shipments to alternative third countries during the past decade. While Spain had long been the main EU producer pro-actively expanding its global footprint, the detection of ASF curbed initial production and
export expectations. While the Danish, Dutch, and Belgian sectors are facing radical reforms imposed by
their governments. In 2027, EU pork exports are projected to be cut by 100,000 MT CWE, to the lowest level since 2015.
September 16, 2026/ USDA/ United States.
https://www.fas.usda.gov
