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After several years of favorable conditions, the Dutch agricultural sector presents a more uneven picture in 2026. According to the latest sector analysis by ABN AMRO, dairy, pig, and arable crop producers are facing market prices that fall below production costs, while high energy and fuel prices—along with drought—are placing additional pressure on other activities.
Despite this context, the bank believes that the agricultural sector generally retains significant financial resilience, thanks to strong results achieved between 2023 and 2025, the accumulation of reserves, and reduced financial pressure. However, it warns that a low willingness to invest—also linked to uncertainty regarding permits and policies concerning nature and water—could ultimately impact productivity, innovation, and sustainability.
In the swine industry, market conditions clearly deteriorated in 2026 following three exceptionally strong years. ABN AMRO traces the root of the current European market imbalance back to late 2025. Cited factors include Chinese tariffs—which hinder the export of pork cuts that face low demand within Europe—and restrictions on Spanish pork imports outside the EU resulting from African swine fever outbreaks in the country, which led to an increased supply of Spanish meat on the EU market.
Added to this is the strength of the euro, which makes European pork relatively more expensive on the global market. Consequently, selling prices have fallen, while major costs—such as feed, manure management, labor, and energy—remain high.
ABN AMRO observes some market improvement during the third quarter of 2026, with a slight rise in pig prices, lower piglet supply, and a cautious recovery in piglet exports to Germany and Spain. However, European production has increased slightly and structural export constraints persist, so the bank does not expect a significant price recovery.
The situation varies depending on the type of farm. Farms specializing in piglet production will face the greatest pressure over the next six months, as piglet prices do not cover all costs. Fattening farms—having suffered through low pig prices and relatively expensive piglets during the first half of the year—are seeing a slight improvement in their position thanks to the drop in piglet purchase prices. Farrow-to-finish farms are also expected to continue operating slightly below production costs.
Farms participating in market schemes such as "Beter Leven" are better protected against fluctuations thanks to agreements on premiums or cost-linked compensation. Overall, ABN AMRO forecasts that the liquidity position of the pig farming sector will deteriorate over the next six months, although finishing farms could see a slight improvement.
In the longer term, high costs associated with manure management and facility upgrades will continue to weigh on financial performance. ABN AMRO notes that construction and facility adaptation costs have risen significantly, and that the agreement to move towards animal-welfare-friendly livestock farming will require substantial investment in housing and welfare standards. These high costs and investment requirements will make it increasingly difficult for a segment of the sector to maintain sufficient long-term profitability.
September 29, 2026/ ABN-AMRO/ The Netherlands.
https://www.abnamro.nl/
